USD expected to lose ground versus other majors – UOB

UOB Group's analysts suggested in their Quarterly Global Outlook that USD is seen losing its shine versus its main rivals in the next months on the back of a persistent easing bias from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

• “Whilst Asian FX is expected to weaken further against the USD, we now see a constructive scenario for a weaker USD against most of G-10 majors spurred by aggressive Fed easing. We now expect 25bp rate-cut at each of the remaining three FOMC meetings for 2019 bringing the Fed Funds Target Rate to a range of 1.25%- 1.50%. If that comes to pass, the interest rate advantage that the USD currently enjoys over its G-10 peers will close significantly and structural USD longs set during Fed hiking cycle from end-2015 to end-2018 may start to get unwound.
• With intensifying discussions of a global recession and the resulting portfolio reallocation towards preparing for one, we expect the JPY to stay strong and update our view towards further strength towards 103/USD by mid-2020. Overall, investors are urged to hedge their JPY liabilities as the twin tail risks of US-China trade conflict and Brexit remain unresolved and tilted to the downside.
• … if the previous QE by the ECB from 2015-2018 was any guide, EUR/USD may even stabilize after bond purchases commence (“sell of rumor, buy on fact”). Coupled with a more aggressive easing profile by the Fed, we expect EUR/USD to gradually recover to 1.12 in 2Q20 and 1.14 in 3Q20.
• Overall, we maintain the view that the GBP/USD would stay depressed at 1.20 in the immediate two quarters until the fog of Brexit is lifted. Combining our negative GBP and positive JPY view, we expect GBP/JPY to drop further to 126 in Q120, near to its 2016’s flash crash lows of 121.60."