Global growth outlook boosted – Deutsche Bank

Aanalysts at Deutsche Bank note global financial conditions and growth prospects have been lifted post the Trump Administration announced in early October its intent to seek a phased trade agreement with China.

• “Constructive developments regarding Brexit have added to this positive drift. Our analysis suggests that business sentiment is now forming a bottom on a global scale and is likely to show modest improvement as we move into 2020, with risks of near-term recession declining.
• In the US, our models based on a wide variety of leading indicators tell us that growth is bottoming in the current quarter at a pace well below potential. Recession risks have declined noticeably assuming progress continues on the trade front, and a moderate upturn in growth ahead still seems in train, though election uncertainty should cap the upside.
• In Europe, too, the more cyclical manufacturing sector data have started to improve, helped by export orders, and our euro area data surprise indicator has turned positive for the first time in 20 months. With policy uncertainty diminishing, spillover from weak manufacturing to the rest of the economy should be limited. We continue to expect EA growth to move sideways through the winter and pick up slowly beginning in Q2.
• China's domestic demand growth may have bottomed, and we expect enough recovery in its trade and investment to about offset the secular downtrend in GDP growth. In Japan, external orders have begun to rise again, and the economy should begin to recover by Q2 as the effects of the recent consumption tax hike fade.
• Our call that a global bottoming is near rests importantly on the assumptions that a Phase 1 trade deal with China is signed, auto tariffs are put aside, and hard Brexit risks subside. But the global economic picture remains fragile. Should a deal not be reached and tariffs be raised further on US trade with China and Europe, we would expect the global economy to continue to slide, very possibly into recession in the quarters ahead.
• On the other hand, a surprisingly positive trade agreement, with a significant tariff rollback, would boost our outlook for global growth. Recent official chatter casts doubt on this outcome. While it could be a negotiating tactic, we see risks tilted more to the downside.”