Odds of a coronavirus pandemic have doubled to 40% - Moody’s Analytics

CNBC reports that with cases of the new coronavirus disease rising quickly beyond China, the odds of the outbreak turning into a pandemic have now doubled - from 20% to 40%, Moody's Analytics said in a report.

"Our previous assumption that the virus will be contained in China proved optimistic, and the odds of a pandemic are rising," wrote economists from the research and consultancy arm of Moody's Corporation.

They had earlier predicted a 20% chance of a pandemic, which is defined by the World Health Organization as "the worldwide spread of a new disease."

"The South Korean cases, combined with the spread of new cases in Italy and Iran, indicate that while the spread in China has slowed, the virus is spreading outside of China. And the ease of its spread may bode ill for an acceleration within China as workers return to their jobs and as shops and restaurants begin to reopen," said the Moody's report.

Under Moody's previous assumption that the virus would be contained in China and largely play out by spring, the economists had projected a contraction in the Chinese economy in the first quarter, while the U.S. and global economies will experience a slowdown in growth.