Biggest surge in the Dow since 1933 probably doesn’t mark the bottom of this bear market

CNBC reports that stocks appear to be finding the bottom but some strategists say it may be over a trap door that could give way to another big decline.

Some credit markets are faring better, the dollar is weakening, and there are positive technical signs pointing to a bottoming in the equities market. But it appears to be driven by hopes for a fiscal stimulus package and the massive Fed programs that have flooded markets with an unprecedented amount of liquidity in a very short time.

The real pivot by markets may come when there are signs the number of new cases of coronavirus have peaked in the U.S., and there is a new level of visibility on the economic impact and earnings hit from the virus. There are currently about 50,000 U.S. cases, ten times higher than week ago.

"The truth is the market is going to bottom when the number of cases starts to peak," said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. market strategist at Credit Suisse. "Between now and then, you're left with volatility."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday bounced more than 11% in its best day since 1933 as Congress moved closer to adopting a giant stimulus package to fight the economic impact of the virus. The S&P 500 rallied 9.4% to 2,447, in its best day since October 2008.

"This 2,300 to 2,400 level has been an area that is finding some buyers. That's the December 2018 low. Obviously, we broke it for a couple days, but this is where the market is trying to find some traction," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. "I think the market has priced in the very short-term bad news. We know the patient counts are going to spike over the next two or three weeks."

Boockvar said the virus impact will remain what drives the stock market, and it will respond when the cases appear to wane.

"We can rally for the next month or two. ... I don't believe at all it is the bottom," he said. "It's a bottom."