Contraction in UK retail sales volumes deepens more than forecast in April - CBI

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Tuesday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance stood at -55 in the year to April, sharply down from -3 in March. Economists had forecast the reading to decrease to -40. That was the steepest fall in sales since December 2008.

Moreover, retailers expect a similar pace of decline in annual next month (balance of -54 in the year to May), the weakest expectations in the survey history.

The report also revealed that orders placed on suppliers also plunged (balance of -48 in April, down from -19 in March), with a similar pace expected next month (-50).

In other survey results, wholesalers recorded sales volumes decline at the fastest pace since January 2009, and motor traders were unanimous in reporting a drop in sales. Wholesalers expect a sharper fall in sales next month, while the vast majority of motor traders expect sales to decrease again in the year to May. Internet sales growth dropped close to its weakest since the start of this series in August 2009 (the second-lowest reading ever, the weakest being in June 2019) and is expected to remain well below the long-run average next month.

Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, noted: "It's no surprise that the lockdown is hitting retailers hard. Two-fifths have shut up shop completely for now. And sales of groceries and other essentials also fell, suggesting households may have been dipping into stockpiles built up prior to the lockdown or tightening their belts more generally as incomes take a hit."