Eurozone economic sentiment index fell significantly in April

According to the report from European Commission, in April 2020, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) crashed in both the euro area (−27.2 points down to 67.0) and the EU (−28.8 down to 65.8 points).1 This was the strongest monthly decline in the ESI on record (since 1985), surpassing by far the previous negative record from March. The indicators are now far below their longterm averages of 100 and very close to the lowest levels registered during the Great Recession in March 2009. The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) plummeted to its lowest level on record (by 30.1 points to 63.7 in the euro area and 31.2 points to 63.3 in the EU).

In the euro area, the collapse in the ESI resulted from an exceptionally strong fall in confidence among consumers and in all the business sectors. Compared to the other sectors, the crash was particularly marked in services and retail trade; the fall in construction confidence, although the strongest on record, was less marked than in the other sectors.

While Industry confidence fell dramatically (−19.2), it remained above the record low of March 2009. The steepest monthly fall on record resulted first and foremost from managers' crashing production expectations. The stark decline in consumer confidence (−11.1) was fuelled by households' tumbling expectations concerning the general economic situation, but also their own financial situation. The crash in retail trade confidence (−19.7) was due to the exceptionally strong deterioration in retailers' business expectations. The slump in construction confidence (−15.1) resulted from managers' marked corrections to their employment expectations and assessments of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) fell like a stone (−49.3). Unprecedented deteriorations were registered in all three components, i.e. managers' demand expectations and the assessment of the past business situation and past demand.