Consumer climate in Germany recovers slightly - GfK

According to the report from GfK Group, consumers in Germany have recovered somewhat in May following the shock triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both economic and income expectations, as well as propensity to buy, are on a slight increase. As a result, GfK forecasts a figure of -18.9 points for June 2020, 4.2 points higher than its level in May of this year (revised to -23.1 points). 

When data was being collected for April's GfK Consumer Climate Study, many consumers in Germany were shocked about the awful pictures coming out of Northern Italy, New York and Spain. This contributed to an unprecedented collapse in consumer sentiment. The consumer climate did not witness any further decreases in May. Nevertheless, the value of -18.9 points is the second-lowest value that has ever been recorded for the GfK Consumer Climate in Germany.

"The gradual opening of many businesses has certainly contributed to the propensity to consume not having to take any further hits, and increases even slightly at the present time," explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK Consumer Expert. "Nevertheless, uncertainty among consumers is high. In their opinion, the Germany economy is far from being over the hump and they are anticipating a tough recession. Anxiety over job losses remains high and has proven to be a key barrier to consumption at this time, alongside losses in income. Retailers and manufacturers must continue to adapt to this situation."

The improvement in the consumer climate is backed by a decrease in propensity to save (-9.8 points). After decreasing twice in a row, economic expectations increased again somewhat in May. The indicator rose by eleven points and stands now at -10.4 points. Nevertheless, this is still significantly below the longtime year average of around zero points, and below last year's value (-12.1 points).