Canada GDP collapsed unprecedented 39% in Q2 - RBC Financial Group

According to ActionForex, analysts at RBC Financial Group note that the 38.7% (annualized) drop in Canada's GDP in Q2 was more than 4 times the biggest prior drop, and built onto an 8.2% plunge in Q1. 

"The pull-back was widely expected at this point, though, and was still slightly less-bad than the 43% Q2 decline the Bank of Canada assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report."

"Consumer spending plunged a record 43%, but that was still not quite as weak as the 57% drop in business investment. Virus containment measures clearly weighed on both, with a plunge in oil & gas investment tied to lower oil prices also a factor in the latter. Even government spending posted a sizeable decline with containment measures curtailing normally non-cyclical government services. Net trade was one of the few positive contributors in Q2, but only because imports fell even more than exports."

"As-expected, weakness on a monthly basis was heavily concentrated in April, when containment measures were at their peak. GDP rose 4.8% in May and another 6.5% in June. Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate of July GDP was up another 3%. Together, those gains still only retrace about two-thirds of the 18% 2-month decline over March and April. But that would still leave risks tilted if anything to the upside of our call for a 33% (annualized) bounce-back in GDP in Q3."

"The size of that early bounce-back has clearly been helped by the exceptional level of government policy supports for households. Household disposable incomes actually rose almost 11% (non-annualized) in Q2 despite a massive downturn in labour markets. Government transfers to households surged by a whopping $56 billion in Q2 (likely the bulk from CERB payments) versus a $23 billion decline in earned wages & salaries. Retail sales were already above year-ago levels by June, and home resales have soared into the summer (helped also by pent-up demand from delayed transactions in the spring and low interest rates)."

"That income boost has also been expected for some time with payments from CERB well-publicized. The concern has long been that still exceptional softness in labour markets (the unemployment rate was still in double-digits at 10.9% in July) would outlast exceptional policy supports. Although the new programs announced last week by the federal government to replace CERB will help ease that transition."