U.S. Leading Economic Index rises in line with forecast in September

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.7 percent m-o-m in September to 107.2 (2016 = 100), following a revised 1.4 percent m-o-m climb in August (originally a 1.2 percent m-o-m gain).

Economists had forecast an increase of 0.7 percent m-o-m.

“The US LEI increased in September, driven primarily by declining unemployment claims and rising housing permits. However, the decelerating pace of improvement suggests the US economy could be losing momentum heading into the final quarter of 2020,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The US economy is projected to expand in Q4, but at a substantially slower rate of 1.5 percent (annual rate) according to The Conference Board’s GDP forecast. Furthermore, downside risks to the recovery may be increasing amid rising new cases of COVID-19 and continued labor market weakness.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent m-o-m in September to 101.7, following a 0.8 percent m-o-m rise in August. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. edged down 0.1 percent m-o-m in September to 107.6, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m fall in August.