China to set five-year plan for steering economy through choppy waters

Reuters reports that China’s top leaders will chart the country’s economic course for 2021-2025 at a key meeting starting on Monday, seeking to balance growth and reforms to avoid stagnation amid an uncertain global outlook and deepening tensions with the United States.

The plan and its execution will be crucial for China to avoid the so-called “middle income” trap, policy insiders say, referring to the struggle of many economies to boost productivity and shift towards higher value-added industries.

“Although the Chinese government has been calling for a transition in the development model for a number of years, we think the next five years will be particularly important, both politically and economically,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note ahead of the plenum, the fifth meeting of the Central Committee since the 2017 party congress.

Sustaining steady growth will be the priority, even as expectations grow that top leaders could announce fresh reforms to spur domestic demand, innovation and self-reliance under Xi’s new “dual circulation” strategy, policy insiders said.