UK retail sales volumes fell less than forecast in November - CBI

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Tuesday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance stood at -25 in the year to November, down slightly from -23 in October. That was the lowest reading since June.

Economist had forecast the reading to decrease to -35.

Retail sales volumes are expected to be broadly flat in the year to December.

The report also revealed that orders placed on suppliers dropped but at the slowest pace since December 2019 (balance of -10 from -39 in November) and are seen to fall at a similar pace next month (-13). Meanwhile, stock levels remained below the long-run average (balance of +14 from +6; average +18) and are expected to remain so next month (+12).

In other survey results, employment in the retail sector continued to decrease compared to a year ago, but at a slower pace than in August (balance of -32 from -45). Investment intentions for the year ahead fell in November, but at a slower pace than in August (balance of -12 from -32).

Retailers also reported that average selling prices rose compared to last November (balance of +40 from +17) and at the fastest pace since February, although price inflation is expected to ease next quarter (+33).

“This month’s survey gives hope that the economic impact of the Autumn lockdowns should not be as severe as in the Spring. Both consumers and firms are adapting as best they can, borne out in this month’s strong online sales,” noted Ben Jones, CBI Principal Economist. “With encouraging progress on mass, rapid testing and vaccine solutions coming down the track, there is reason for growing consumer and business confidence going into 2021.”