Eurozone industrial production remains strong despite second wave - ING

Bert Colijn, a Senior Economist at ING, notes that Eurozone's industrial production surprised on the upside increasing by 2.1%, leaving production just -3.5% below pre-pandemic levels, but suggests that the winter uncertainty could well mean we see another drop in industrial output.

"Data show that eurozone industry remains immune to the impact of the second Covid-19 wave as industrial production for October increased by 2.1% month-on-month."

"The increase in output was widespread, with all production categories increasing in comparison to September except for a stable reading for non-durable consumer goods."

"For November, survey data indicates continued recovery of production as manufacturing PMI fell but stood well above 50 at 53.8. That corresponds to slowing but still strong growth as businesses indicate that new orders continue to come in despite the second wave. As new restrictive measures that dominated the economy in November left industry largely unscathed, it is indeed likely that another rise is in the making. Slower nonetheless as second-round effects of the restrictions will also plague industry."

"We don't expect similar declines as seen during the first lockdown, but the fate of the manufacturing recovery has become a lot more uncertain for the winter months."