Nomura sees drop in Japan virus cases as chance to buy stocks

Bloomberg reports that according to analysts, what appears to be a downward trend in the number of new coronavirus infections in Japan could become another reason to buy Japanese shares.

“Japan’s comparative success in controlling the spread of the virus could provide further impetus for purchases of Japanese equities by global investors,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a report on Monday.

Foreigners bought a net 66.5 billion yen ($641 million) of Japanese stocks in the first two full weeks of this year in the cash and futures market. Japan’s blue-chip stock gauge Nikkei 225 has rallied 4% in 2021 so far, exceeding the 2.6% gain in the S&P 500.

During the first and second waves of infections in spring and summer last year, “once the rate of increase declined from the peak by at least 10ppt, growth in new cases remained under control for some time,” the analysts wrote in the note. “The trend may be following a similar pattern this time around.”

While new infections have fallen, Tokyo recorded 1,026 cases on Tuesday. One criteria for lifting the emergency in the capital is for daily cases to fall to around 500, though Economy Minister and Japan virus czar Yasutoshi Nishimura has said there are other factors involved and simply meeting that criteria wouldn’t mean an end to the emergency.