US inflation may have been warming up in February, but it could be hot by May

CNBC reports that US inflation is just warming up, but by late spring it could get downright hot, even if temporarily.

February’s consumer price index — a measure of inflation — is expected to be up moderately when it is released Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. By May, the pace of headline consumer inflation on an annualized basis could be double February’s pace.

The debate in the market is whether the spike is transitory as the Fed and many economists say, or the start of a bigger trend.

Economists expect the consumer price index rose 0.4% in February, or up 1.7% from a year ago. That compares to a 0.3% increase in January, and a 1.4% rise on an annual basis.

When energy and food are excluded, the core CPI is expected to be up 0.1% in February, or an annual pace of 1.3%.

Signs of inflation are already showing up in the goods side of the economy, and economists expects that to spread to the service side.

Consumers will soon be armed with another stimulus check. Pent-up demand should start sending up prices on things like airfare, public transportation, hotels, dining out, and rental cars as more people feel comfortable leaving their homes.