U.S. stocks take Biden tax plan in stride - Goldman Sachs

Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs strategists said that President Joe Biden’s potential tax hikes will likely deal only a temporary blow to U.S. equities thanks to the tide of fiscal spending, including the prospect of growth-friendly infrastructure outlays.

The S&P 500 is up about 75% over the past year, helped by huge injections of stimulus. Strategists said Biden’s plans for the first major federal tax hike since 1993 for programs like infrastructure and fighting climate change will weigh on company earnings and equity allocations in the short term.

Higher corporate taxes are likely to cut S&P 500 earnings by 3% in 2022, the Goldman strategists said, while a JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by John Normand said they will be a “drag on earnings growth and buybacks.”

During his campaign, Biden discussed raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% -- still below the pre-Trump 35% -- as well as increasing the top marginal tax rate to 39.6% and taxing capital gains and dividends at the higher ordinary income tax rate.

Higher capital gains taxes for top earners could cut equity allocations, lower stock prices and reverse gains from momentum trading, Goldman said. JPMorgan said they “could trigger pre-emptive selling before the tax year ends.”