UK retail sales volumes rise sharply in April - CBI

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Tuesday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance surged to +20 in the year to April from -45 in March, being well above seasonal norms in part due to base effects as sales volumes recorded a steep decline in April 2020 because of the first national lockdown in the UK. This was the highest reading since September 2018 as well.

Economist had forecast the reading to improve to -5.

Retail sales volumes were expected to remain above seasonal norms in the year to May (+10), with non-essential retail stores across the UK able to re-open by late-April, but the pace of their growth will slow.

The report also revealed that the retail orders balance was broadly flat in the year to April (-1, up from -33 in March) and were seen to drop in the year to May (-8).

In other survey results, stock levels in relation to expected sales was seen as broadly adequate (balance of 0 from +9), but this was the lowest survey balance since 2009, and were forecast to remain so next month (-1).

“Springtime has brought some relief to the retail sector, with non-essential stores in England and Wales re-opening earlier this month, and retailers in Scotland and Northern Ireland following suit in the final week of April,” noted Ben Jones, Principal Economist at the CBI. “Despite progress along the roadmap, the impact of Covid-19 restrictions are still biting hard. The improvement in retail sales this month was driven by sectors that have performed relatively well during the pandemic, with little immediate rebound expected for more embattled sectors such as clothing, footwear and department stores."