EUR/USD set to turn lower towards the 1.20 mark – Rabobank

FXStreet reports that Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, expects the EUR/USD to move back lower to the 1.20 level over the next months.

“On our central view regarding the re-opening of the Eurozone economy, there is scope for some of the market’s hawks to be disappointed over the pace of policy moves from the ECB. While that has implications for our EUR outlook, how that plays out in EUR/USD depends on how market expectations develop with respect to how monetary policy settings are shaping up in the US.” 

“There is speculation in the market that the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium could provide a backdrop for policy makers to dip their toe into the topic of tapering. This, however, will depend on the path of inflation data and, since it is not scheduled until August, it is likely that the market is coming to terms with the likelihood that USD weakness could prevail in the near-term.”

“On the assumption that the ECB manages tapering expectations in the Eurozone carefully and given the likelihood that reflation/inflation fears will rise again in the US, we see risk on another move below EUR/USD 1.20 on a one-to-month view.”