China: Trade prospects remain solid - UOB

FXStreet reports that an economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviews the latest Chinese trade data.

“China’s export and import growth were robust in May although both were slightly below consensus expectation, giving rise to concerns that export demand has topped out. The real test will be in 2H21 when the base effect disappears and it is unclear whether the strength in external demand for goods will be sustained beyond the initial boost from the reopening of economies.”

“In USD-terms, exports rose by 27.9% y/y (Bloomberg est: +32.1% y/y; Apr: +32.3% y/y) while imports grew at its fastest pace in more than a decade at 51.1% y/y (Bloomberg est: 53.5% y/y; Apr: 43.1% y/y), helped by high commodity prices as well as a low comparison base. China’s trade surplus edged up to a 4-month high of US$45.53 bn in May from US$42.86 bn in April.”

“Despite the trade tensions, China’s trade with the US has continued to grow. China’s export and imports with the US rose by 20.6% y/y and 40.5% y/y respectively in May with its trade surplus widening to US$31.78 bn from US$28.11 bn in April.”