U.S. Leading Economic Index rises slightly more than forecast in July

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.9 percent m-o-m in July to 116.0 (2016 = 100), following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m gain in June (originally a 0.7 percent m-o-m advance).

Economists had forecast an increase of 0.8 percent m-o-m.

“The U.S. LEI registered another large gain in July, with all components contributing positively,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Leading Index’s overall upward trend, which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020, is consistent with strong economic growth in the second half of the year. While the Delta variant and/or rising inflation fears could create headwinds for the US economy in the near term, we expect real GDP growth for 2021 to reach 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a still robust 4.0 percent growth rate for 2022.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. went up 0.6 percent m-o-m in July to 105.6, following a 0.4 percent m-o-m growth in June. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. rose 106.5 percent m-o-m in July to 103.0, following a flat m-o-m performance in June.