USD/CHF hesitates around 0.9200 after failure at 0.9225

• The US dollar's recovery from 0.9150 meets resistance at 0.9225.
• The dollar, looking for direction ahead of central banks' meetings.
• USD/CHF biased lower, aiming to 0.9081 – Commerzbank.

The US dollar whipsawed around 0.9200 on Tuesday as the pair’s rebound from 7-week lows at 0.9150 found resistance at 0.9225 earlier today. On a broader view, the USD/CHF remains trapped within a clear downward channel from late September highs at 0.9365.

The US dollar, looking for direction ahead of Central Banks’ meetings

The greenback’s recovery has lost steam on Tuesday, with the pair unable to maintain the positive tone seen on Monday in spite of the upbeat market sentiment seen during the European and US market sessions and the positive US macroeconomic data.

The USD Index has reversed earlier losses, after bouncing at 93.68, returning to 94.00 area, buoyed by the positive market sentiment triggered by upbeat earnings reports. Beyond that, US new home sales surged 14% in September to a six-month high of 800,000 units sold, with the Richmond Fed manufacturing Index improving beyond expectations and consumer confidence improving unexpectedly in October.

In a bigger picture, however, the major currency crosses remain moving within previous ranges, with the market awaiting monetary policy decisions by the ECB, BoJ, and BoC, which might provide a fresh push to currency markets.

USD/CHF remains vulnerable, aiming towards 0.9081 – Commerzbank

From a technical perspective, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, maintains its negative outlook and sees the current decline reaching levels below 0.9100: “USD/CHF is vulnerable near-term, it is under pressure and we would allow for further losses (..) It is possible that this is only an ABC correction but intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and we suspect that the market will see a deeper sell-off to the 0.9142 200-day ma and potentially the 2020-2021 uptrend at 0.9081.” 

Technical levels to watch