Fitch Ratings: RBA’s policy recalibration signals inflation risk, 2023 rate hike

According to the US-based Fitch Ratings, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy tweak in November keeps the 2023 rate hike expectations intact amid the looming inflation risk.

Key quotes

“The RBA has indicated it will not raise the cash rate until inflation is sustainably within its 2%-3% target range, a condition that it previously did not expect to be met before 2024 under its central scenario. However, its guidance was softened in its 2 November 2021 monetary policy statement, which hinted that faster-than-expected progress towards meeting the inflation target could lead to a case for raising the rate before 2024. The RBA also officially discontinued its target of 0.1% for the yield on the Australian government’s April 2024 bond.”

“We believe the next step will be the termination of government bond purchases, probably in late 1Q22 or during 2Q22; bond purchases were reduced to AUD4 billion weekly, from AUD5 billion, in September 2021. We continue to expect the cash rate to be raised in 2023, although there is a possibility that it could even be raised in late 2022 if inflation and wage growth exceed our assumptions.”

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