EUR/USD set to move downward below the 1.1495 mark – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD failed to sustain its break to new lows on Friday and remains floored above 1.1495/93 – the March 2020 high and 50% retracement of the 2020/2021 bull trend. Nevertheless, a major top remains in place and analysts at Credit Suisse still look for a resumption of the core downtrend.

Resistance at 1.1683/95 to cap

“EUR/USD failed to sustain a break to new 2021 lows and remains floored above major support at 1.1495/93 – the March 2020 high and 50% retracement of the 2020/2021 bull trend, with short-term momentum increasingly poor. Nevertheless, our bias stays lower following the recent decisive rejection of key resistance from its falling 55-day average (and downtrend from June) at 1.1683/95.” 

“A major top remains in place, reinforcing the case for a resumption of the core downtrend and a clear break below the 1.1524/13 October lows. Below here and 1.1495/93 would trigger a move to support then seen next at 1.1377/70, before the 61.8% retracement at 1.1300/1.1290, where we would expect to see another pause.” 

“Resistance stays at 1.1614/18, with 1.1632/36 ideally capping. We shall maintain an immediate tactical bearish bias though whilst below 1.1689/95.”