WTI refreshes weekly high past $83.00 on API oil inventory draw, EIA data in focus

• WTI prints four-day uptrend, pokes monthly high after industry stockpile data.
• Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks Change drops 2.485 million barrels.
• Softer US dollar battles downbeat EIA oil demand forecasts, US SPR concerns.
• EIA inventories, US CPI will be in focus for near-term direction.

WTI bulls keep reins around $83.30, posting a fresh one-week high during Wednesday’s Asian session.  The oil benchmark recently cheered industry data showing a draw in the weekly stockpiles as well as the White House comments rejecting announcement on Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for today. Also positive for the black gold is the softer US dollar. However, reflation fears question the up-moves ahead of the weekly official oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

That said, the private oil stocks change figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) dropped below +3.594 Million Barrels (MB) to -2.485 MB for the week ended in November. Further, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas quotes the White House in his latest tweets while saying, “White House says it won't be announcing SPR oil release today.” His tweets also mention the White House as seeing oil prices as top issue, will act as needed. “White House says it continues to engage with OPEC+ on raising supply,” per Bloomberg’s Blas.

On Tuesday, the commodity prices cheered downbeat US dollar, tracking softer US Treasury yields on inflation fears. In doing so, the quote ignores Bloomberg’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts predicting that the market would have an excess supply early in the following year and reported that prices would fall in December from current levels. 

Elsewhere, concerns surrounding China’s debt markets and inflation fears ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Beijing as well as the US probe the oil buyers even as hopes of economic recovery and supply outage underpin the commodity prices.

Looking forward, the US inflation data for October will be important for the short-term USD moves and hence important for the oil traders to watch. Also, the weekly release of the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for the period ended on November 05, expected +1.91M versus +3.291M prior, will offer additional details to direct the WTI moves.

Read: US October CPI preview: Inflation data unlikely to discourage gold bulls

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of a 12-day-old resistance line, now support around $82.60, directs WTI bulls towards the multi-month high flashed in October around $85.00.