Australian Employment Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, anticipating an upbeat outcome

Australia will report its October employment data on Thursday, November 11 at 00:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of five major banks. The country is expected to have added 50K new jobs after losing 138K positions in September. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have ticked higher, from 4.6% to 4.7%, although the Participation Rate is seen improving from 64.5% to 64.8%.

ANZ

“We expect employment to rise 50K ahead of the reopening but the unemployment rate to increase to 4.8%.”

Westpac

“Our -50K forecast is balancing the start of a recovery in NSW vs ongoing lockdown drags in Vic. Risks are to the upside. We expect to see 0.2ppt drop in participation to 64.3% which will result in a 40K drop in the labour force, enough to limit the rise in unemployment to just 0.1ppt (rounded) to 4.7%.”

BBH

“A gain of 50K is expected vs. -138K in September, as the economy begins to reopen. The unemployment rate is expected to rise two ticks to 4.8%, suggesting little risk of accelerating wage pressures right now. No wonder the RBA’s Statement of Monetary Policy underscored the likelihood that lift-off won’t be seen until 2024. Next policy meeting is December 7 and no change in policy is expected then.”

SocGen

“We expect a significant rebound in employment numbers for the month of October (+80K), as the economy reopened in the two major cities of Sydney and Melbourne. However, the unemployment rate is likely to rise a bit (4.8%) despite the recovery in employment, as the participation rate will probably show a sizeable increase (65%). In other words, the number of job seekers will rise faster than the number of jobs. Strong job market recovery from the Delta outbreak-driven damage is likely to continue into 2022.” 

Citibank

“Employment (Citi: +48.1K, previous: -138K); Unemployment Rate (Citi: 4.7%, previous: 4.6%); Participation Rate (Citi: 64.8%, previous: 64.5%). Volatility in the labour force survey is expected to persist in October, as NSW began reopening at the start of the month, VIC following towards month’s end. We expect employment to rise in October. The pickup in the participation rate is expected to offset the increase in job gains. While uncertainty persists around the headline labour force statistics, We are more certain of the fact the number of hours worked has troughed, and may likely improve further in October with both locked down states reopening.”

See – Australian Employment Preview: A positive surprise or too much optimism?