AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Hovers around 83.15, as bears await a break below the 200-DMA

• AUD/JPY retreated from around 84.00 on weaker Australian employment data.
• AUD/JPY slide on the back of a mixed-market sentiment.
• AUD/JPY Technical outlook: A break below the 200-DMA would open the door for a move towards 82.00.

The AUD/JPY pair falls for the second day in the week, down 0.32%, trading at 83.18 during the New York session at the time of writing. The market sentiment is a mixed bag, as witnessed by US stocks fluctuating between gainers and losers. In the FX market, risk-aversion favored safe-haven currencies, like the Japanese Yen and the US dollar.

During the Asian session, AUD bulls pushed the pair to the upside, but the trend stalled around 83.67, retreating towards the 83.10s region. The move was triggered by a weaker than expected Australian employment report that prompted a spike in the Unemployment rate to 4.7%. Furthermore, it cemented the recent dovishness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is pushing for lower rates until 2024.

Therefore, the market sentiment would be the main driver for the pair. A risk-on mood would be positive for the AUD; otherwise, it would benefit the JPY.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/JPY pair is trading sideways around the double-top chart pattern target at 83.22. On Wednesday, the cross-currency printed a daily high at 84.09 but retreated around the 83.50 area. Despite the daily moving averages (DMA’s) remaining below the spot price, meaning the pair has an upward bias, the AUD/JPY could be headed lower in the near term.

Furthermore, confirmation of the Relative Strenght Index (RSI) below the 50-midline edging lower added another bearish signal in the near term.

For AUD/JPY bears, to reclaim control, they will need a daily close below the 200-DMA at 82.87. A breach of the latter would expose the shorter time-frame moving averages, with the 50-DMA at 82.57, followed by the 100-DMA at 81.90.

On the other hand, for AUD/JPY bulls to resume the uptrend, they will need a daily close above the November 9 high at 84.10. In that outcome, the following resistance level would be the October 22 low at 84.61, followed by the psychological 85.00 level.

On the flip side, a break above 83.71 could pave the way for further gains. The first resistance would be the 84.00 figure, followed by the so-called neckline of the double top, around 84.61, followed by the 100-SMA around the 85.00 area.