AUD/JPY Price Analysis: 100-EMA guards immediate upside

• AUD/JPY retreats from upper limit of weekly trading range.
• Upbeat Momentum, sustained trading above 50% Fibonacci retracement favor bulls.
• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the downside filters.

AUD/JPY grinds higher around the weekly top, sidelined near 83.85 amid the initial Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair remains inside a short-term trading range below the 100-EMA.

However, the upward sloping Momentum line joins the quote’s ability to stay positive past 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of October month up-moves, near 83.05, to keep the pair buyers hopeful.

That said, a clear upside break of the stated EMA, around 84.05 by the press time, becomes necessary for the pair’s run-up towards the October 22 swing low of 84.60. Though, any further advances will be challenged by a three-week-old horizontal area near the 86.00 threshold.

In a case where the AUD/JPY bulls remain dominant past 86.00, the last month’s high near 86.25 will be in focus.

Alternatively, the lower end of the stated range, also surrounding the 50% Fibo., restricts the short-term downside of the AUD/JPY pair near the 83.00 round figure.

Should the pair sellers break 83.00 round-figure, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 82.30 and late September’s peak near 81.30 may entertain traders ahead of directing them to the previous month’s low of 79.90.

AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further upside expected