US: Sales are rising but prices are rising faster – Wells Fargo

Data released on Tuesday, showed retail sales in the US rose more than expected in October. According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the 1.7% increase in October retail sales sets up holiday sales for another record gain, but the real insight in is how wallet share is shifting as consumers reprioritize spending amid the highest inflation in 30 years.

Key Quotes: 

“Retail sales increased 1.7% in October on the heels of upward revisions to the prior month's figures. E-commerce posted the largest monthly gain of 4.0% on the month. Prices played a role in lifting the monthly sales figures once again, with core goods consumer prices up another 1% in October. Encouragingly, even excluding some of the categories most associated with recent price hikes like autos and gas, the monthly gain of 1.4% was double the consensus expectation for a more modest 0.7% increase.”

“Even with declines in holiday sales in November and December, today's report still presents some upside to our call for holiday sales to rise 11% compared to last year. If sales are flat in November and December, holiday sales would rise 14.8% this year. When adjusting for inflation, we estimate real sales would rise a still-strong 10%, which would be the highest in at least seven years.”