EUR/USD to slide towards 1.1020 on a break below 1.1290 – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD is similarly holding at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1290. Economists at Credit Suisse view this as a temporary pause and look for a sustained break in due course for a move to 1.1020.

Resistance at 1.1428/38 to cap for an eventual sustained move below 1.1290

“EUR/USD has found a floor for now at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1290. With a major ‘head and shoulders’ top in place, our core outlook stays bearish and we view this pause as temporary and healthy before the core downtrend resumes.”

“Resistance is seen at 1.1375/76 initially, then 1.1387, above which can see the recovery extend to our corrective objective and what we look to be tougher resistance at the 13-day exponential average and 38.2% retracement of the October/November fall at 1.1428/38. We look for this to then cap and for the trend to turn lower again.” 

“Support moves to 1.1327 initially, then 1.1313. An eventual sustained move below 1.1290 should clear the way for a fall back to 1.1264/55 ahead of 1.1185, then the ‘measured objective’ from the top at 1.1075 and eventually our main objective of the 78.6% retracement and price support at 1.1019/02.”