Gold Price Forecast: XAU/EUR retreats under €1,600, approaches Pitchfork’s middle-trendline

• XAU/EUR recovers some of its weekly losses, barely up 0.01.%.
• Falling German 10-year bunds and German Real Yields keep the EUR pressured to the downside.
• XAU/EUR: Tilted to the upside, as long as it remains above €1,575.

Gold (XAU/EUR) vs. the euro trims some of its weekly losses, advances 0.01%, trading at €1,596 during the day at the time of writing. Thin liquidity conditions with the US on Thanksgiving holiday, and an upbeat market, put a lid on the yellow-metal free fall. European stock indices are in the green, while US equity futures point to the upside.

Meanwhile, the German 10-year bund, which significantly influences the EUR, falls almost three basis points, sitting at -0.248%. Also, German Real Yields drop seven basis points, down to -1.93%, weighing on the EUR fall against the non-yielding metal.

Choppy trading conditions in the XAU/EUR keep gold trading in a narrow range of €1,594-€1,600; amid thin liquidity conditions, US Stock and Money Markets remain closed, in the observance of Thanksgiving.

On Thursday, the Eurozone economic docket featured the German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey for December showed a further contraction than expected. The number came at –1.6, lower than the -0.5 expected. Further, the Gross Domestic Product for Germany for the Q3 came at 1.7%, a tenth lower than the 1.8% expected, which caused no meaningful impact on XAU/EUR. 

XAU/EUR Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart depicts that gold corrected beneath the top-trendline of the Pitchfork’s channel, from YTD tops around €1,650, down to around €1,580, near the middle-trendline of Pitchfork’s channel, which acted as support. Since then, gold has stabilized around the €1,575-€1,600 range, though XAU/EUR still tilted to the upside, per the daily moving averages (DMA’s) residing below the spot price with an upward slope.

On the upside, the first resistance would be €1,600. A breach of the latter would expose Pitchfork’s top-trendline to around €1,640. Otherwise, the first support would be Pitchfork’s middle-trendline around €1,575, followed by the confluence of the 50-DMA and the July 16 swing high at €1,550.