USD/TRY rebounds to 3-day highs near 12.8000

• USD/TRY starts the week on a positive footing.
• Turkey’s Economic Confidence dropped to 99.30.
• President Erdogan defended once again the low-rate policy.

The selling pressure around the Turkish lira remains well and sound and lifts USD/TRY to fresh 3-day peaks near the 12.80 mark on Monday.

USD/TRY up on politics, weak data

USD/TRY advances for the third session in a row at the beginning of the week and trades at shouting distance from last week’s all-time highs past 13.0000 the figure ((November 24).

The lira depreciates further on Monday in response to earlier comments by President Erdogan, who once again reiterated its firm opposition to interest rate hikes and sustained his (particular) view that interest rates generate inflation. Erdogan suggested that inflation could grind lower before the election in 2023 and added that the recent high volatility in the exchange rate is decoupled from economic fundamentals.

Further selling pressure in the lira came after Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index eased to 99.30 in November (from 101.40). Additional data saw the trade deficit shrinking to $1.44B in October.

USD/TRY key levels

So far, the pair is gaining 4.19% at 12.7578 and a drop below 11.5451 (low November 24) would expose 10.7007 (20-day SMA) and then 9.6361 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.1105 (all-time high Nov.24) followed by 14.0000 (round level).