Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes wall of resistance near $1,792 ahead of US NFP

• Gold bounces off four-month-old support line, key Fibonacci retracement level.
• Yields reverse corrective pullback from 10-week low, stock futures dwinde on mixed concerns.
• Omicron tightens the grip but UK braces for a cure, US policymakers avoid government shutdown.
• Gold Price Forecast: Pressure persists November low at risk of giving up

Gold (XAU/USD) portrays a corrective pullback from a monthly low, bouncing off key supports to print a $1,773 level during early Friday. The yellow metal’s recent gains could be linked to the market's cautious sentiment ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release and softer yields.

That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields fade bounce off 10-week low, marked the previous day, but the S&P 500 Futures also print 0.16% intraday downside by the press time. The reason could be linked to the market’s indecision amid contrasting headlines and a lack of conviction over the key central bank’s future moves, not to forger headlines concerning Omicron, China and the US.

After days of haggling, the US policymakers finally avoided the government shutdown, at least till February. Though fears of the faster Fed tapering keep bond bears hopeful. Among the key promoters of faster rolling back of easy money, also conveying reflation fears, were Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Richmond President Thomas Barkin.

Elsewhere, cases of the South African coronavirus variant, dubbed as Omicron, rise in the US and China, as well as the UK. However, Britain approves medical treatment that’s likely a cure for the worries COVID-19 strain.

On a different page, the European Union (EU) and the US criticized China after Thursday’s talks in Washington while Beijing calls for the US to cut the tariffs on their goods. Further, Beijing-based IT firm Didi is up for leaving the US stock exchange and joining Hong Kong’s Hang Seng.

It’s worth noting that even if the global policymakers do signal to dial back the easy money policies, backed by the inflation fears, a fresh covid wave challenges the further monetary policy tightening. This in turn helps the investors to jump back towards the traditional safe-havens like US government bonds and gold.

Though, today’s US employment data and PMI numbers will be important for near-term direction as the Fed policymakers slip into the no-talk periods from this Saturday.

Read: US Nonfarm Payrolls November Preview: Can we agree the labor market is healing?

Technical analysis

Having been defeated by a wall of resistance around $1,792, comprising 50, 100 and 200-DMA, gold bounces off an ascending support line from August around $1,762, not to forget staying above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of March-June upside.

Although softer yields and recovery from short-term key supports favor bulls to aim for another battle with the DMA convergence near $1,792, bearish MACD signals and an absence of oversold RSI keep the commodity sellers hopeful.

That said, fresh selling awaits a clear downside break of the stated 61.8% Fibo. level of $1,768, which in turn will direct gold towards an ascending support line from August around $1,762.

However, a nine-month-old horizontal area surrounding $1,750-47, will be a tough nut to crack for the gold sellers afterward.

Meanwhile, gold buyers have a tough task on hand of crossing the $1,792 SMA convergence if they aim for re-entry.

Following that, the $1,800 threshold and October’s peak near $1,813 will be on their radars before confronting another important resistance level close to $1,834 that includes highs marked during July and September.

Overall, gold sellers have an upper hand, at least technically, than their bull friends. Though, US jobs report becomes crucial to watch.

Gold: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected