Canada: BoC positioned to hike rates in the first half of 2022 – CIBC

On Friday, employment data from the Caandian labour market surpassed expectations. The Bank of Canada (BoC) looks positioned to hike rates in the first half of 2022, although the impact of omicron is of course still creating a significant degree of uncertainty about the near term for any such forecasts, explained analyst at CIBC. 

Key Quotes: 

“The random number generator that is the Canadian Labour Force Survey spit out a huge number for November. With the gains looking broad based and building on past progress, the Bank of Canada now looks positioned to hike rates in the first half of 2022, although the impact of omicron is of course still creating a significant degree of uncertainty about the near term for any such forecasts.”

“Today's data is enough to say that the Bank of Canada is positioned to hike rates in April. Although, with that being said, the impact of omicron is creating very wide uncertainty bands around base case forecasts for the next few months.”

“With US payroll data for November revealing a much weaker labour market than anticipated south of the border, the strong print in Canada is seeing the Canadian dollar gain ground and rates across the Government of Canada yield curve rise, particularly at the short end.”