AUD/USD: Market pricing too much tightening in 2022 so aussie still looks vulnerable – MUFG

Despite the recent decline in AUD/USD, analysts at MUFG Bank, consider there is still scope for some further downside over the short-term. The see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to remain dovish.

Key Quotes:

“While we believe the RBA will have to hike sooner than the RBA’s current guidance of 2024, we doubt there is a compelling need to shift the guidance at this stage.”

“The market remains priced for around three rate hikes in 2022 and we do not expect the RBA outcome next week to be consistent with that. As well as mixed labour market conditions and limited evidence of wage growth picking up, Australia’s terms of trade has taken a negative hit with iron ore and coal prices both taking a tumble. With the RBA set to persist with QE until the February review and while the RBA could end QE at that stage, the contrast with the Fed over the coming months will keep downward pressure on AUD/USD.”

“AUD/USD is now down 8.25% year-to-date and at these levels is beginning to look stretched. However, with such a stark monetary stance, there is scope for some further downside over the short-term.”