Canada: Annual CPI rises to 4.8% in December versus expected rise to 4.8%

• Headline CPI was in line with expectations at 4.8% YoY. 
• But Core CPI was hotter than expected, rising unexpectedly to 4.0% YoY from 3.6% last month.
• The data will likely boost speculation that the BoC hikes rates next week. 

Headline Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in Canada rose to 4.8% YoY in December from 4.7% in November according to the latest release from Statistics Canada on Wednesday. That was in line with consensus economist forecasts. The MoM rate came in at -0.1%, also in line with consensus forecasts for a slight decline from 0.2% in November. 

Core CPI, meanwhile, was up 4.0% YoY, a surprise rise from 3.6% in November. The median forecast had been for a slight decline to 3.5% on the month. The BoC's core measures all also rose, with Common coming in at 2.1% YoY, Median at 3.0% (versus 2.8% last month) and Trim at 3.7% (versus 3.4% last month). 

Market Reaction

USD/CAD has seen a choppy reaction to the latest data, initially dropping under 1.2450 before retracing to the 1.2460s again, with the hotter than expected inflation data likely to boost speculation that the BoC hike rates next week.