Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD closes towards $1800 on broad US dollar weakness

• Gold advances closes to 0.50% in the North American session, amid US dollar weakness and falling US T-bond yields.
• Atlanta’s Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic eyes three rate hikes.
• The Ukraine – Russia conflict reclaims the spotlight in talks at the UN.
• XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral bias, though upside/downside risks remain. 

Gold (XAU/USD) snaps three days of losses, jumping from a support trendline around the daily lows at $1785. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1796, slightly short of the 50-day moving average (DMA), which resides at $1801. 

So far, an improvement in the market mood has hurt the prospects of a higher greenback, with the USD Dollar Index down some 0.46% in the day, under the 97.00 handle. Furthermore, the US 10-year Treasury yield undermines the buck, down one basis point sitting at 1.787%.

Fed’s Raphael Bostic would not rule a 50 bps hike

During the weekend, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed that he foresees at least three rate hikes, beginning in March, but further noted that the Federal Reserve would increase 50 basis points if inflations remain “stubbornly high,” according to the FT.

Meanwhile, the Fed parade began once the US central bank blackout was lifted. Fed’s Daily, George, and Bostic would cross the wires around 16:30 GMT, 17:40GMT, and 18:30 GMT, respectively. Gold traders might turn their attention to all of them, particularly Kansas City Fed Esther George, a voter in 2022. Any hints regarding balance sheet reduction and rate hikes could be taken from their words.

In the meantime, the Ukraine – Russia conflict, which investors put aside for a moment after the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, gets into the spotlight. The UN security council voted to hold a public meeting on a build-up of Russian troops on the Ukraine border. Furthermore, China’s ambassador to the UN said that he does not consider Russia’s troop build-up near the Ukraine border a threat, per Reuters.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden commented that if Russia chooses to walk away from diplomacy and attack Ukraine, there will be consequences.

XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The XAU/USD daily chart shows a confluence of the daily moving averages (DMAs) around the $1795-$1805 area, which could pave the way for further gains once broken to the upside.

The first support would be $1,800. A breach of the latter would expose Pitchfork’s channel central line around the $1,825-30 area, followed by July 2021 swing high at $1,834 and the YTD high at $1,854.

Contrarily, failure at $1,800 would expose the January 28 daily low at $1,780. Giving way for USD bulls would reveal crucial support levels like November 3, 2021, daily low at $1,759, followed by December 15, 2021, swing low at $1,753.