USD/CAD steadies below 1.2700 amid softer oil prices, cautious mood ahead of US inflation

• USD/CAD licks its wounds around intraday low amid anxious markets.
• WTI crude oil fades bounce off weekly low amid supply concerns, less noise over Russia.
• BOC’s Macklem cited evidence to confirm easing global supply chain issues, inflation.
• US CPI becomes the key data to watch for near-term direction.

USD/CAD remains pressured around 1.2675 while portraying the market’s indecision heading into Thursday’s European session.

In addition to the anxiety ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, downbeat oil prices and recently mixed comments from Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem also restrict USD/CAD moves of late.

That said, the inflation fears are high in the US, pushing the Fed towards faster rate hikes. While confirming the same, the White House (WH) conveyed expectations of a higher YoY inflation figure and said, “Its irrelevant month on month number will continue trending lower the rest of the year.” Following that, WH Economic Adviser Brian Deese said that he sees reason to think that factors boosting inflation will moderate over time.

On the other hand, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester supported the March rate hike while Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CNBC on Wednesday he is hopeful that they will start to see a decline in inflation. Fed’s Bostic also said, "Leaning toward the need for a fourth interest rate increase in 2022."

It’s worth noting BOC’s Macklem said, “The global supply chain problems may have peaked.” The policymaker blames supply chain issues for higher inflation while also saying that Canadians should expect a rising path of interest rates.

Moving on, WTI crude oil prices dropped 0.65% to $88.50 at the latest, fading the previous day’s bounce from weekly low.

Against this backdrop, the US Treasury yields remain sidelined after stepping back from the highest levels since July 2019 whereas stock futures in the US and Europe print losses.

Given the market’s risk-off mood and cautious sentiment ahead of the key US data, USD/CAD traders may witness further grinding until the US CPI for January releases, expected 7.3% YoY versus 7.0% prior. It’s worth noting that the downbeat figures may allow the Loonie pair to pare recent losses.

Read: US Consumer Price Index January Preview: Is this inflation different?

Technical analysis

A daily closing below the 50-day EMA level surrounding 1.2665 becomes necessary for the USD/CAD bears to keep reins, otherwise another run-up towards a five-week-old resistance line near 1.2785 can’t be ruled out.