Brexit: UK PM Johnson is unlikely to trigger Article 16 ahead of May’s Stormont elections – FT

One government insider said the international situation had reshaped thinking on the protocol. ‘Before the Ukraine war, it was more likely that we could have triggered Article 16 before purdah kicks in. But now it’s looking pretty uncertain.’

Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has consistently warned ministers about the economic consequences of triggering Article 16, including the possibility of a trade war with the EU and the likely continuation of US tariffs on British metals exports, according to government insiders.

But some Conservative MPs believed Johnson was nevertheless intent on triggering Article 16 as part of a deal with Tory rightwingers to prop up his leadership during the ‘partygate’ scandal, in which he is being investigated for breaking coronavirus restrictions.

Senior Conservatives are also concerned that Northern Ireland’s unionist parties could suffer in May’s elections due to the unpopularity of the protocol among their voters.

If the dispute is not resolved prior the election purdah, it may toughen feelings against the agreement, particularly on the part of the Democratic Unionist party and its leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.