US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 9 major banks, inflation to go higher to new multi-decade highs

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday, March 10 at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 9 major banks regarding the upcoming US inflation data.

CPI and core CPI are expected to reach fresh 40-year highs at 7.9% and 6.4%.

Commerzbank

“We expect consumer prices to rise by 0.8% in February compared with January (consensus 0.8%). The YoY rate should climb to 7.9%.”

Nordea

“We expect the February CPI figures to show headline inflation surging to 8% YoY (consensus: 7.9%) and core inflation reaching 6.4% YoY (consensus: 6.4%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine adds more uncertainty to the future prints.”

ING

“We look for the annual rate of CPI to rise to 7.9%, but an 8% reading is certainly possible, which would be the fastest rate of inflation since January 1981.”

TDS

“Core prices likely eased on an MoM basis (0.5%), but the pace is expected to have stayed fairly strong. While inflation in used vehicles likely slowed, it was probably offset by continued strength in shelter prices. An expected 7% MoM surge in gasoline prices also likely added to headline pressures (0.7%). Our MoM forecasts imply 7.8%/6.4% YoY for total/core prices, up from 7.5%/6.0% in Jan.”

NBF

“We expect the core index to have gained 0.5% MoM. As a result, the annual core inflation rate could jump to a 40-year high of 6.4%. Headline prices could have increased at an even stronger pace (0.8% MoM), as seasonally adjusted gasoline prices surge upward. The headline annual rate could thus climb four ticks to 7.9%, the highest since January 1982.”

Deutsche Bank

“We expect YoY inflation to rise to +7.8% in February, the fastest in 40 years. This is the last reading before next Wednesday's FOMC conclusion with the committee now in a blackout period.”

CIBC

“Inflation is set to accelerate further in the US in February as higher energy prices combined with rising labor costs, and strong demand in core categories, will likely leave total inflation at 7.8%. The expected acceleration in core inflation to 6.4% will be magnified by a weak year-ago base reading, while its largest component, shelter, is set to gain momentum as leases continue to reset alongside the return of activity to cities. A normalization in behavior as Omicron faded could have also supported core service prices for transportation, as airport screenings rose.”

Citibank

“US February CPI MoM – Citi: 0.7%, median: 0.8%, prior: 0.6%; CPI YoY – Citi: 7.8%, median: 7.9%, prior: 7.5%; CPI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.5%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.6%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 6.4%, median: 6.4%, prior: 6.0%. In the final, highly anticipated CPI report ahead of the March FOMC meeting, we do not expect to see notable signs of slowing in the monthly pace of inflation. While not yet visible in February data, higher oil prices and further supply chain disruptions resulting from recent geopolitical developments could put further upward pressure on various goods prices in particular.”

ANZ

“We expect US core CPI to increase by a heady 0.6% MoM in February, matching recent monthly out turns. Surging energy and food prices should see headline rise by 0.8% MoM. On an annual basis, core and headline inflation are expected to reach fresh 40-year highs of 6.5% YoY and 7.9% YoY respectively.”