EUR/NOK: Norges Bank to signal further rate hikes, providing additional support for krone – Commerzbank

Norges Bank is set to raise interest rates by 25bps today. The actual question is whether it will raise its rate path which currently assumes a key rate of just above 1% until year-end. In the view of economists at Commerzbank., it is easy to identify reasons for a more rapid rate cycle.

Norges Bank and NOK likely to remain in the lead

“The companies expect stronger growth than in November and at the same time they see wages rising. The main uncertainty results from the rapid rise in prices and capacity constraints.”

“Following the pandemic, the Norwegian economy experienced a solid recovery. The current boom of the oil and gas sector is likely to trickle through to the other sectors and lead to solid growth in 2022.”

“I could easily imagine that Norges Bank will signal further rate hikes for this year, in line with front-loading efforts, thus providing additional support for NOK, as the market is currently only pricing in little more than Norges Bank is currently signalling (just above 1%).”

See – Norges Bank Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, hiking rates and plenty more to come