AUD/USD records a new YTD high above 0.7500 amid a positive mood

• The Australian dollar advances during the week, so far up 1.30%.
• The US Dollar remains close to the 99.00 mark, though it falters to weigh on the AUD/USD pair.
• US President Biden called for Russia to be removed from the G20.
• AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bias is upwards unless it trades below 0.7440, meaning that a correction is underway.

The AUD/USD edges higher, but the rally appears to be stalling, as shown by Thursday’s price action, about to form a doji candle, meaning the tug-of-war between bulls and bears started, as uncertainty looms. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7510.

The greenback stays firm amid a positive market mood

The market mood is risk-on in the North American session, despite that European stocks indices finished with losses. Across the pond, US equities are rising, while the buck shows some resilience to fall, as it trades with gains reflected by the US Dollar Index up 0.20%, at 98.82. US Treasury yields resume their advance after Wednesday’s losses, with the 10-year T-note yield up almost five basis points, sitting at 2.341%.

There has not been any market-moving news on the geopolitical front, with the Russia – Ukraine war still underway. The US President Joe Biden arrived at NATO’s two-day summit in Brussels. According to a senior US official, Biden told NATO that he supported increased NATO troops on the eastern front. Also,  Biden called for Russia to be removed from the G-20.

Aside from this, Fed speakers have continued to grab headlines. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he is “comfortable” with 25 bps increases to the Federal Funds Rate but remains “open” to 50 bps increases if needed. Earlier, Minnesota Fed President Neil Kaskary said that 10-year Treasury yields remain low while emphasizing a risk of overdoing it on rate hikes.

An absent Australian economic docket would leave AUD/USD traders adrift to US data on Friday. Meanwhile, across the pond,  Pending Home Sales for February, the Universit of Michigan Consumer Expectations for March, and Fed speakers would provide a catalyst for AUD/USD traders.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD is upward biased, as shown by the daily chart, and with the 50-day moving average, crossing over the 100-DMA, each one sitting at 0.7223 and 0.7216, respectively. Nevertheless, due to the steepness of the rally, plus the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 68, accelerating toward overbought conditions, the AUD/USD might correct in the near term. However, unless the AUD/USD breaks below 0.7440, the AUD/USD will keep going up.

That said, the AUD/USD first resistance would be October 28, 2021, high at 0.7555. Breach of the latter would expose 0.7600, followed by 0.7700.