EUR/SEK seen trading lower at 10.20 on a three-month view – Rabobank

The Swedish krona has been propelled to the top of the G10 performance table on a one-day. That said, it continues to languish second to last, after the JPY, in the year to date. Economists at Rabobank have revised lower their three-month EUR/SEK forecast from 10.30 to 10.20. 

Sweden’s non-NATO position could still result in increased volatility

“Despite the inflationary risks, wage rises in Sweden are still modest. This gives policy-makers breathing room. Another factor that Riksbank policymakers are likely to consider is the relatively high level of household debt. This suggests the potential for a heightened degree of sensitivity to higher interest rates. This factor on top of the uncertainties generated by the war in Ukraine argue for an increment pace of tightening from the Riksbank and a relatively low peak compared with previous economic cycles.” 

“A more hawkish stance from the central bank coupled with Sweden’s low dependency on Russia oil imports is supportive for the SEK vs. the EUR. However, Sweden’s non-NATO position could still result in increased volatility.”

“We have moved our three-month EUR/SEK forecast lower from 10.30 to 10.20.”