WTI Price Analysis: Awaits acceptance above 21-DMA on the road to recovery

• WTI price is resuming the uptrend after correcting sharply on Tuesday.
• Weaker US dollar, lower inventories offer support to the US oil.
• Acceptance above 21-DMA at $103.24 is critical for resuming the uptrend.

WTI (NYMEX futures) is looking to extend the rebound above the $103 mark, having found strong bids below the $102 region.

The renewed upside in the US oil comes after the black gold tumbled roughly 5% on global growth concerns, which stoked fears over the demand for oil and its product. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the 2022 global growth forecast by nearly 1 percentage point on Tuesday.

Investors seem to have looked past the IMF forecasts, as a 4.5 million barrels drawdown in the US API weekly crude stockpiles, Libyan fuel outage and lower OPEC+ output flare-up supply-side concerns and offer the much-needed support to the price of WTI.

Further, oil price also finds support from the gradual reopening of Shanghai city from the covid lockdown. Meanwhile, a broad-based retreat in the US dollar also remains one of the key reasons behind the rebound in the USD-sensitive oil.

From a near-term technical perspective, WTI’s corrective pullback saw the price close below the flattish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $103.24 for the first time this week.

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, still holding above the midline, buyers remain hopeful for a meaningful recovery.

Therefore, daily closing above the latter is needed to trigger a sustained move higher towards the previous day’s high of $108.23. Ahead of that, the $105 round number will emerge as a tough nut to crack for bulls.

WTI: Daily chart

On the other side, if bulls fail to find a foothold above the 21-DMA, then a test of the 50-DMA support at $100.85 will be inevitable.

The next significant downside target will be then envisioned at the $100.00 psychological level.   

WTI: Additional levels to watch