EUR/USD to reach levels around parity on a energy-related recession in Europe – Commerzbank

There are still Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe. But if we see an EU-wide recession due to disruptions in the energy supply, EUR/USD could test parity levels, economists at Commerzbank report.

Consider whether technical analysis really helps 

“If we see a wide-reaching, energy-related recession in Europe I consider EUR/USD levels around parity to be possible. Depending on the extent of the recession even more than that. However, if we do not see that, I continue to expect EUR/USD to recover.”

“You will have to decide whether you hedge EUR-USD risks or not. The hedging trades work regardless of what else might happen in the world. To give you a false sense of security does not help anyone either.”

“Technical analysis is an act of desperation amongst market participants who do not understand the reasons for market developments and instead rely on recognizing patterns – of course without rigorous statistical tests as to whether significant patterns are even discernible. The latter would usually produce a negative result. Even if I cannot tell you which way EUR/USD is going to go at least I want to save you from that.”