US Dollar Index to correct a little lower, 103.40 to hold – ING

Dollar extends correction ahead of key US data and Powell speech. However, economists at ING expect the dollar to hold onto large parts of its gains.

April retail sales should keep dollar supported

“We still call for some further bearish steepening of the US yield curve and the US 10-year real yield pushing to +100bp over coming months – from +20bp today. This will continue to pose a challenge for equity and credit markets and we would view this week's recovery in both as a pause in a bear trend rather than a meaningful reversal.”

“US April retail sales and industrial production are expected to come in strong. We will also hear from Federal Reserve hawk James Bullard and Chair Jerome Powell. It seems too early in the tightening cycle for the Fed to be fighting market expectations of tightening and the dollar could in fact be a little stronger tomorrow after Powell's remarks tonight. But for today's session, we favour consolidation and a few recovery stories.”  

“DXY could correct a little lower today, but the 103.40 area could be too far.”

See – US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, a decent gain