Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD struggles near the lower end of one-week-old trading range

• Silver edged lower for the second straight day and dropped back closer to the weekly low.
• The set-up favours bearish traders, though the lack of follow-through warrants some caution.
• Sustained move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. is needed to negate the near-term negative outlook.

Silver witnessed some selling for the second successive day on Thursday and dropped back closer to the lower end of its weekly range during the first half of the European session. The white metal was last seen trading around the $21.80 region, down 0.85% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the recent recovery from the YTD low faltered near a resistance marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the $23.24-$20.46 downfall. The subsequent decline favours bearish traders amid bearish oscillators on daily/hourly charts.

That said, the range-bound price moves witnessed over the past one-week point to indecision over the near-term trajectory for the XAG/USD. This makes it prudent to wait for a break below the trading range support, near the $21.65-$21.60 area, before placing fresh bearish bets.

Some follow-through selling below the 38.2% Fibo. level, around mid-$21.00s, will reaffirm the negative bias. The XAG/USD could then slide below the $21.30-$21.25 region and accelerate the slide towards the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $21.15 area, en-route the $21.00 mark.

The downward momentum could further get extended and drag spot prices back towards the YTD low, around the $20.45 region touched earlier this month. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if broken would make the XAG/USD vulnerable to challenging the $20.00 psychological mark.

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt beyond the $22.00 round figure might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $22.20 region (61.8% Fibo. level). This is closely followed by the $21.35 hurdle, above which the XAG/USD could climb to the $22.65 region.

Silver 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch