USD/RUB drops below 61.00 even as risk-off mood underpins USD rebound

• USD/RUB resumes weekly downtrend after pausing the bears the previous day.
• Firmer oil prices, Russia’s currency reserves and oil payment system defend RUB buyers.
• US Treasury yields underpin US dollar rebound ahead of the US inflation data.
• Ukraine-Russia fails to agree over passage of grain ships, UN intervention looms.

USD/RUB fails to extend the previous day’s corrective pullback as sellers attack 61.00 to refresh the intraday low during early Wednesday morning in Europe.

The Russian ruble (RUB) pair’s losses ignore the recently firmer US Dollar, backed by the upbeat US Treasury yield and the risk-off mood.

That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses the pullback from a fortnight high as the Treasury bond yields regain upside momentum after snapping a six-day uptrend the previous day. The reason behind the greenback’s rebound could be linked to the anxiety ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, as well as Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May.

Additionally, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP measure, World Bank (WB) President David Malpass and officials from China, namely Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen and Vice Finance Minister Zou Jiayi, renewed recession fears to offer extra strength to the US dollar.

It’s worth noting that fears of escalating geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine hint at Moscow’s sustained push for payment in terms of RUB, which in turn favor the USD/RUB bears. Also weighing on the quote could be the firmer oil prices, up 0.10% around $120.00 by the press time.

Talking about the latest updates, “Kyiv says it has not yet reached any agreement with Russia or Turkey to allow the safe passage of its grain ships in the Black Sea, injecting skepticism into a push by the U.N. to create a vital food corridor,” per Politico.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print the first daily loss in three around 4,150 and portray the market’s risk-off mood.

Moving on, headlines concerning Russia and global economic growth may entertain USD/RUB traders ahead of this week’s key data/events mentioned above.

Technical analysis

While 21-DMA restricts immediate rebound around 63.15, USD/RUB buyers are likely to remain away until the quote rises past the monthly resistance line, near 64.70 by the press time.

That said, the quote’s current weakness eyes to retest the yearly low surrounding 55.90, marked in May.