ECB: All eyes on Lagarde’s guidance on pace of July lift-off – Scotiabank

Analysts at Scotiabank offer a detailed preview of their expectations from Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1145 GMT.

Also read: ECB Preview: Laying groundwork for rate hikes but EUR/USD could still fall

Key quotes

“Widely expected to tee up the end to net purchases under the Asset Purchase Program in early July and set the scene for the first-rate hike of the cycle that is likely to be delivered on July 21st. That would generally be consistent with Lagarde’s guidance that was provided on May 11th when she said:

“The first-rate hike, informed by the ECB’s forward guidance on the interest rates, will take place sometime after the end of net asset purchases. We have not yet precisely defined the notion of ‘some time,’ but I have been very clear that this could mean a period of only a few weeks.”

“Global financial markets will be particularly attuned to whether Lagarde offers guidance toward a gradual initial pace of lift-off defined as a quarter-point hike, or a half percentage point hike as some of her colleagues prefer.”

“Markets lean more toward the quarter-point scenario with the deposit facility rate expected to rise by 125–150bps by year-end into early 2023 (chart 7). Inflation that is running at over 8% y/y with core at just under half that would lend itself to a quickened pace of lessening massive monetary policy stimulus.”