EUR/USD resumes the decline near 1.0150, looks to US, EMU data

• EUR/USD fades Tuesday’s small uptick and refocuses on the 1.150 area.
• Another revision of the EMU Q2 GDP is due later in the region.
• In the NA session, the FOMC Minutes and Retail Sales are in the limelight.

The selling bias returns to the single currency and drags EUR/USD back to the 1.0150 zone on Wednesday.

EUR/USD now looks to the domestic, US calendar

EUR/USD keeps navigating the lower end of the recent range amidst some modest losses, although it has put some distance from weekly lows in the 1.0120 region recorded on Tuesday.

The re-emergence of the demand for the US dollar put the risk complex once again under pressure on Wednesday amidst the broad-based recovery in yields in the global cash markets.

Later in the session, another estimate of the GDP in the euro area during the April-June period is due, while Retail Sales and the release of the FOMC Minutes will be in the centre of the debate later in the NA session.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD now appears somewhat stabilized in the low-1.0100s against the backdrop of a firm recovery in the demand for the US dollar.

Price action around the European currency, in the meantime, is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns, fragmentation worries and the Fed-ECB divergence.

On the negatives for the single currency emerge the so far increasing speculation of a potential recession in the region, which looks propped up by dwindling sentiment gauges and the incipient slowdown in some fundamentals.

Key events in the euro area this week: EMU GDP Growth Rate (Wednesday) – EMU Final Inflation Rate (Thursday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle. Italian elections in late September. Fragmentation risks amidst the ECB’s normalization of its monetary conditions. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects and inflation.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is losing 0.08% at 1.0162 and a break below 1.0096 (weekly low July 27) would target 1.0000 (psychological level) en route to 0.9952 (2022 low July 14). On the other hand, the next up barrier comes at 1.0368 (monthly high August 10) seconded by 1.0495 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.0615 (weekly high June 27).