S&P Global Market Intelligence: Inflation to moderate in 2023 and 2024

Sara Johnson, Executive Director of Economic Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement on Wednesday, global growth is likely to remain subdued in late 2022 and 2023 while inflation is seen moderating over the next two years.

Key quotes

“World real GDP growth is thus projected to slow from 5.8% in 2021 to 2.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.

“Once inflation subsides and financial conditions improve, global growth is expected to revive to 3% in 2024,” 

mainland China’s economy continues to struggle. “The housing market remains in a deep recession, and declining land sales are hurting local government finances. Real GDP growth is projected to slow from 8.1% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2022 before picking up to 4.9% in 2023.”

“After slowing from 6.2% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2022, Asia-Pacific’s real GDP growth is projected to pick up to 4.2% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023.”

“India, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Cambodia will likely achieve growth rates of 5%-7%.”

US real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.7% in 2021 to 1.5% in 2022 and 1.0% in 2023 before picking up to 1.7% in 2024.”

“With growth falling short of potential, the US unemployment rate will likely rise from 3.5% in July to 4.8% in mid-2024.”

“With consumer price inflation at 10.1% year-on-year in July and headed higher (with a 75% October increase in gas and electricity rate caps), the UK recession is expected to linger through the spring quarter of 2023.”

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