GBP/JPY fails to cheer strong yields around 161.50, UK PM Johnson’s final speech eyed

• GBP/JPY hesitates in extending the two-day downtrend, sidelined of late.
• Upbeat US Treasury yields, record borrowing costs in the UK fail to impress buyers.
• Economic, political pessimism surrounding Britain favor sellers but BOJ’s divergence keeps buyers hopeful.

GBP/JPY treads water around 161.50 during Thursday’s Asian session, snapping a two-day downtrend with the latest inaction performance. The cross-currency pair’s latest moves could be linked to the market’s anxiety amid mixed catalysts and a light calendar ahead of the key data.

In doing so, the quote also ignores firmer Treasury bond yields. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields refresh a two-month high of around 3.21% while the two-year bond coupons jump to the highest levels since 2007, near 3.51% at the latest. Also portraying the sour sentiment is the S&P 500 Futures’ 0.36% intraday fall to the lowest levels since late July, at 3,930 by the press time.

At home, British households' expectations for average inflation over the next five to 10 years jumped to a record-high 4.8% in August, well above the Bank of England's 2% inflation target, a monthly survey from Citi and YouGov showed on Wednesday, reported Reuters. With this, the hawkish hopes from the Bank of England (BOE) should have ideally favored the GBP/JPY buyers. However, the lack of hopes from the BOE and political pessimism in the UK, as well as the nation's energy crisis, seem to exert downside pressure on the GBP/JPY prices.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will say on Thursday that the recent rise in energy prices was a warning that Britain cannot be left at the mercy of international markets or "foreign despots" to meet its energy needs, per Reuters.

Elsewhere, Japan’s Industrial Production for July improved to -1.8% YoY versus -2.6% expected and -2.8% prior. Further, Retail Trade numbers for the said period also grew 2.4% YoY compared to 1.9% market forecasts and 1.5% prior. It’s worth noting that Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy board member Junko Nakagawa recently mentioned on Wednesday that he hopes to discuss policy change in September based on data available.

Elsewhere, the chatters surrounding another ship blocking the moves in Suez Canal joined pessimism over China’s covid conditions, downbeat statistics and tussles with the US over Taiwan appear to weigh on the market sentiment of late, which in turn favor GBP/JPY sellers.

That said, the GBP/JPY traders should pay attention to today’s final speech of UK PM Johnson, as well as yields, for fresh impulse.

Technical analysis

A clear downside break of the monthly support line, near 160.95 by the press time, becomes necessary for the GBP/USD bears before challenging the yearly low near 159.45. Alternatively, the 100-DMA restricts immediate upside near 163.00.